Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections

Erratum to: 36th International Symposium on Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s13054-016-1208-6.]

First-Principles Density Limit Scaling in Tokamaks Based on Edge Turbulent Transport and Implications for ITER

A first-principles scaling law, based on turbulent transport considerations, and a multimachine database of density limit discharges from the ASDEX Upgrade, JET, and TCV tokamaks, show that the increase of the boundary turbulent transport with the plasma collisionality sets the maximum density achievable in tokamaks. This scaling law shows a strong dependence on the heating power, therefore predicting for ITER a significantly larger safety margin than the Greenwald empirical scaling [Greenwald et al., Nucl. Fusion, 28, 2199 (1988)] in case of unintentional high-to-low confinement transition

Interpretative and predictive modelling of Joint European Torus collisionality scans

Transport modelling of Joint European Torus (JET) dimensionless collisionality scaling experiments in various operational scenarios is presented. Interpretative simulations at a fixed radial position are combined with predictive JETTO simulations of temperatures and densities, using the TGLF transport model. The model includes electromagnetic effects and collisions as well as □(→┬E ) X □(→┬B ) shear in Miller geometry. Focus is on particle transport and the role of the neutral beam injection (NBI) particle source for the density peaking. The experimental 3-point collisionality scans include L-mode, and H-mode (D and H and higher beta D plasma) plasmas in a total of 12 discharges. Experimental results presented in (Tala et al 2017 44th EPS Conf.) indicate that for the H-mode scans, the NBI particle source plays an important role for the density peaking, whereas for the L-mode scan, the influence of the particle source is small. In general, both the interpretative and predictive transport simulations support the experimental conclusions on the role of the NBI particle source for the 12 JET discharges

Testing a prediction model for the H-mode density pedestal against JET-ILW pedestals

The neutral ionisation model proposed by Groebner et al (2002 Phys. Plasmas 9 2134) to determine the plasma density profile in the H-mode pedestal, is extended to include charge exchange processes in the pedestal stimulated by the ideas of Mahdavi et al (2003 Phys. Plasmas 10 3984). The model is then tested against JET H-mode pedestal data, both in a 'standalone' version using experimental temperature profiles and also by incorporating it in the Europed version of EPED. The model is able to predict the density pedestal over a wide range of conditions with good accuracy. It is also able to predict the experimentally observed isotope effect on the density pedestal that eludes simpler neutral ionization models

Shattered pellet injection experiments at JET in support of the ITER disruption mitigation system design

A series of experiments have been executed at JET to assess the efficacy of the newly installed shattered pellet injection (SPI) system in mitigating the effects of disruptions. Issues, important for the ITER disruption mitigation system, such as thermal load mitigation, avoidance of runaway electron (RE) formation, radiation asymmetries during thermal quench mitigation, electromagnetic load control and RE energy dissipation have been addressed over a large parameter range. The efficiency of the mitigation has been examined for the various SPI injection strategies. The paper summarises the results from these JET SPI experiments and discusses their implications for the ITER disruption mitigation scheme

Peripheral temperature gradient screening of high-Z impurities in optimised 'hybrid' scenario H-mode plasmas in JET-ILW

Screening of high-Z (W) impurities from the confined plasma by the temperature gradient at the plasma periphery of fusion-grade H-mode plasmas has been demonstrated in the JET-ILW (ITER-like wall) tokamak. Through careful optimisation of the hybrid-scenario, deuterium plasmas with sufficient heating power (greater than or similar to 32 MW), high enough ion temperature gradients at the H-mode pedestal top can be achieved for the collisional, neo-classical convection of the W impurities to be directed outwards, expelling them from the confined plasma. Measurements of the W impurity fluxes between and during edge-localised modes (ELMs) based on fast bolometry measurements show that in such plasmas there is a net efflux (loss) between ELMs but that ELMs often allow some W back into the confined plasma. Provided steady, high-power heating is maintained, this mechanism allows such plasmas to sustain high performance, with an average D-D neutron rate of similar to 3.2 x 10(16) s(-1) over a period of similar to 3 s, after an initial overshoot (equivalent to a D-T fusion power of similar to 9.4 MW), without an uncontrolled rise in W impurity radiation, giving added confidence that impurity screening by the pedestal may also occur in ITER, as has previously been predicted (Dux et al 2017 Nucl. Mater. Energy 12 28-35)

Overview of JET results for optimising ITER operation

The JET 2019–2020 scientific and technological programme exploited the results of years of concerted scientific and engineering work, including the ITER-like wall (ILW: Be wall and W divertor) installed in 2010, improved diagnostic capabilities now fully available, a major neutral beam injection upgrade providing record power in 2019–2020, and tested the technical and procedural preparation for safe operation with tritium. Research along three complementary axes yielded a wealth of new results. Firstly, the JET plasma programme delivered scenarios suitable for high fusion power and alpha particle (α) physics in the coming D–T campaign (DTE2), with record sustained neutron rates, as well as plasmas for clarifying the impact of isotope mass on plasma core, edge and plasma-wall interactions, and for ITER pre-fusion power operation. The efficacy of the newly installed shattered pellet injector for mitigating disruption forces and runaway electrons was demonstrated. Secondly, research on the consequences of long-term exposure to JET-ILW plasma was completed, with emphasis on wall damage and fuel retention, and with analyses of wall materials and dust particles that will help validate assumptions and codes for design and operation of ITER and DEMO. Thirdly, the nuclear technology programme aiming to deliver maximum technological return from operations in D, T and D–T benefited from the highest D–D neutron yield in years, securing results for validating radiation transport and activation codes, and nuclear data for ITER

Disruption prediction at JET through deep convolutional neural networks using spatiotemporal information from plasma profiles

In view of the future high power nuclear fusion experiments, the early identification of disruptions is a mandatory requirement, and presently the main goal is moving from the disruption mitigation to disruption avoidance and control. In this work, a deep-convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed to provide early detection of disruptive events at JET. The CNN ability to learn relevant features, avoiding hand-engineered feature extraction, has been exploited to extract the spatiotemporal information from 1D plasma profiles. The model is trained with regularly terminated discharges and automatically selected disruptive phase of disruptions, coming from the recent ITER-like-wall experiments. The prediction performance is evaluated using a set of discharges representative of different operating scenarios, and an in-depth analysis is made to evaluate the performance evolution with respect to the considered experimental conditions. Finally, as real-time triggers and termination schemes are being developed at JET, the proposed model has been tested on a set of recent experiments dedicated to plasma termination for disruption avoidance and mitigation. The CNN model demonstrates very high performance, and the exploitation of 1D plasma profiles as model input allows us to understand the underlying physical phenomena behind the predictor decision